The fledgling Tipra Motha, led by royal scion Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma, is predicted to trounce the Congress-Left alliance for the second spot in the Tripura Assembly polls, shows India Today-Axis My India exit poll results released on Monday.

While Tipra Motha is expected to win 9-16 seats, the Left-Congress is likely to bag 6-11 seats.

The BJP and The Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) alliance is set to retain power in Tripura, bagging 36-45 seats, the exit polls have predicted. Tripura has a 60-member Assembly, where 30 is the magic number to form the government. The BJP-IPFT combine is likely to get 45 per cent of the vote share, according to the exit poll.

The exit poll shows the emergence of a new political party in the form of Tipra Motha, under the leadership of Pradyot Manikya Debbarma, has further split the opposition vote, particularly among the tribal community.

The new party seems to be getting the bulk of the tribal community's votes because of their demand for separate statehood for the tribals. However, the Tipra Motha seems unable to get any kind of support from other communities, going by the exit poll.

The Left Front-Congress alliance seems to be largely ineffective and is likely to win only those seats where the minority population is in good numbers.

Even as the tribal votes have likely gone in favour of the Tipra Motha, it seems that Bengali voters have consolidated behind the BJP-IPFT, denting the Congress-Left combine's overall seat share.

With this, the Congress-Left seat share is predicted to be lower despite a higher vote share of 32 per cent than the Tipra Motha's 20 per cent.

(With inputs from agencies)